Egypt Presidential Election: Islamist versus Old Guard
Egypt Presidential Election: Islamist versus Old Guard
Joachim de Villiers and Lee Jay Walker
Modern Tokyo Times
The presidential election in Egypt proved inconclusive and highlights the diversity of views held because no single candidate appears to have reached 30%. If anything, it replicates the recent election in France, whereby no leading figure stood out but of course for Egyptians the election was special because of historical factors. Therefore, with approximately 90% of the votes counted it appears that the presidential run-off will be between Mohammed Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq.
This means that the so-called revolutionary period which toppled Hosni Murbarak will see a run-off between the old guard under Ahmed Shafiq and the Islamist nominated Mohammed Mursi. Given this fact, the revolutionary aspect in toppling Hosni Mubarak couldn’t alter the conservative nature of Egyptian politics. In this sense, the next president of Egypt will not be a modernist irrespective of who the eventual winner is.
Hamdin Sabbahi who most resembled the uprising against the regime of Mubarak appears to have come third. However, significantly he dominated in Alexandria which is the second major city in Egypt. This highlights an important gap between Cairo and Alexandria and the same applies to the countryside.
Mohammed Mursi who is the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood (Freedom and Justice Party) is currently in first place by around two percentage points from Ahmed Shafiq. These figures are based on ninety per cent of the vote being counted. It is stated that currently Mohammed Mursi leads with around 26% of the vote compared with 24% of the vote for Ahmed Shafiq. Of course, slight adjustments may be made because another 10 per cent of the vote is still being counted but both political leaders would appear to be out of reach from the third candidate.
Interestingly, the run-off will highlight the gaps within the Islamist movement in Egypt because the thinking of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists is very different. Also, with both seeing each movement being a threat towards their respective power bases, this may divide the Islamist vote and work in the favor of Ahmed Shafiq. Therefore, the run-off will pit two powerful competing movements within Egypt which are both conservative by nature. However, one movement is based on Islamic conservatism while the other is based on the “old guard.” After all, Ahmed Shafiq served briefly under Hosni Mubarak in the role of being the prime minister.
Alexandria is the most significant aspect of this election because the forces of change would have been felt more within Hamdin Sabbahi. Also, with the second city favoring him over the two individuals who have made the run-off, then clearly the future leader knows full well that developments could unfold quickly in the second most powerful city in Egypt. This means that the Islamist card and “old guard” card are equally viewed with suspicion by many in this important city.
The Muslim Brotherhood stated that “It is confirmed with us that a runoff vote will be held between Dr. Mohammed Mursi and General Ahmed Shafiq, according to the numbers available to us.”
Israel is watching events with a keen eye because of its distrust towards both the Muslim Brotherhood and the growing power of Salafists in Egypt. Zvi Mazel, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, commented about the Muslim Brotherhood that “When Israel was founded in 1948, it started to become anti-Israel and sent a brigade along with Egyptian troops in a failed attempt to conquer Jerusalem.”
“Even if they don’t immediately violate the peace process – they have other worries like the economy, maintaining ties with the US – they will ultimately seek to implement Islamic law and try to harm Israel”
“They will also try to come to the aid of Hamas, and will turn a blind eye to smuggling to Gaza from Sudan. These are serious threats to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.”
Therefore, the run-off will either witness continuity under the “old guard” or a new Islamic agenda will be installed. Of course, the Islamic agenda will worry the “old guard” in the army therefore you may witness tensions, just like what happened in Turkey in the past, if the agenda focuses on usurping the state. This means that “a long road” remains and for now it is mired in uncertainty. However, for the United States, unlike Israel, this nation is open to either political leader who wins the run-off irrespective if it is the Muslim Brotherhood or the “old guard.”
