Sudan and South Sudan strike a deal but tensions will remain
Sudan and South Sudan strike a deal but tensions will remain
Jay Doggett and Boutros Hussein
Modern Tokyo Times
Sudan and South Sudan have struck a vital deal which should pave the way for more normal relations in the short-term. This applies to oil payments between both nations which were in dispute until the signing of this deal. However, it is clear that both nations don’t fully trust each other and in the long-term many troubles lie ahead.
This is understandable given the past history of this troubled region and clearly both nations are still meddling into the internal affairs of each nation. How this can be stopped in the short-term is uncertain because you have many serious internal ethnic and religious issues in Sudan and South Sudan respectively. Therefore, the oil deal over payments and other important issues related to this is an important avenue to overcome but the bigger picture is much more difficult.
The spokesperson for Sudan highlighted the real issue being security. This applies to the comment that while a“reasonable understanding” was achieved, the area of security still needs to move forward. In early 2012 the government in Khartoum was extremely irked when South Sudan stopped the production of oil because of a major row over transit fees. Neither nation gained from this because vast profits were squandered by both sides despite both nations having serious issues related to poverty.
Talks in Ethiopia to solve the crisis have ushered in new promises after three weeks of important talks between Sudan and South Sudan. It is not fully known when oil production will begin but it is being linked to security issues between both nations. Also, given the delicate nature of politics in South Sudan then it is not known how this agreement will be received. After all, with so much suffering in South Sudan then people in Juba will be unhappy about compensating the Khartoum government.
In the past you had a bloody and violent war which led to the deaths of millions of people with the south suffering especially hard. The Arabization and Islamization policies of past Sudan governments, is not easily forgotten. Therefore, political leaders in South Sudan need to explain to the people of this new nation why the agreement is in the interest of both nations. Of course, South Sudanese people fully understand the economic angle but it will still be a “bitter pill to swallow” for many.
The former leader of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, commented that “The parties have agreed on all of the financial arrangements regarding oil….What will remain, given that there is an agreement, is to then discuss the next steps as to when the oil companies should be asked to prepare for resumption of production and export.”
Despite everything, it is clear that a trigger could easily lead to fresh tensions between South Sudan and Sudan. After all, both sides are involved in internal issues within both states related to delicate ethnic issues and other important areas. For now, it is hoped that both nations can move forward but clearly the relationship between Khartoum and Juba will remain tense for the foreseeable future.
